02 / Field notes

Weekly notes.

Concise weekly research notes focused on new evidence and changing market mechanisms.

Weekly NoteW29 · 001

Indonesia monetary policy

Three signals that will decide BI’s next move

The rupiah is back above Rp18,000, inflation is near the top of its target, and manufacturing is contracting. We map the three signals behind Bank Indonesia’s July decision.

Base-case decision6.00%

+25bp scenario

Jul 19, 202612 min read

Weekly NoteW28 outlook · 001

US market breadth

The S&P rose. Most of the market did not.

Narrow AI leadership, rising yields and oil risk will make a technology-led pullback the most likely outcome for 13 to 17 July, with AMD carrying the clearest single-stock risk.

13–17 Jul AMDUS$485–515

Base case −8% to −13%

Jul 12, 202612 min read

Weekly NoteW27 outlook · 001

US artificial-intelligence trade

The Second-Largest Listing Will Beat the Largest

SK hynix's Nasdaq debut should rise 10 to 15% while SpaceX falls toward US$145–150 after its Nasdaq-100 inclusion, leaving the broader market green but unusually narrow.

6–10 Jul pair spread+20–25pp

SK hynix over SpaceX

Jul 05, 202613 min read