NEWThree signals that will decide BI’s next move

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Weekly NoteW29 · 001

Indonesia monetary policy

Three signals that will decide BI’s next move

The rupiah is back above Rp18,000, inflation is near the top of its target, and manufacturing is contracting. We map the three signals behind Bank Indonesia’s July decision.

Base-case decision6.00%
+25bp scenario
Jul 19, 202612 min read
Weekly NoteW28 outlook · 001

US market breadth

The S&P rose. Most of the market did not.

Narrow AI leadership, rising yields and oil risk will make a technology-led pullback the most likely outcome for 13 to 17 July, with AMD carrying the clearest single-stock risk.

13–17 Jul AMDUS$485–515
Base case −8% to −13%
Jul 12, 202612 min read